Fianna Fáil are living proof that responsible political behaviour is not entirely conducive to gaining popular public support.
Essentially, they are suffering from acute middle child syndrome.
As the Celtic Phoenix rises, valiant Soldiers of Destiny must watch its assent from the ground, hoping to avoid being scorched by its flames.
Their ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement to sustain this minority Government may be presented as a laudable and noble endeavour but it has created a half-life political existence that is baring no fruit for Fianna Fáil.
Internally they ruminate over the decisions made in the aftermath of the last election as their fear of missing out on Government again intensifies. An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is a man with his fingers firmly on the pulse of the Irish people – and his hands firmly on the purse of the Irish taxpayer. So, identifying the kernel of Fianna Fáil’s problems is not difficult.
As middle child in the 32nd Dáil Fianna Fáil remain concertinaed between an increasingly popular Government and an anti-elitist preaching opposition.
Frustratingly for Michaél Martin, Mr Varadkar’s Government gets all the attention and all of the plaudits by virtue of its seniority and its spending power.
Smaller parties and Independent TD’s alongside them on the opposition benches continue to behave like the enfant terrible in a dysfunctional family. Those sometimes-childish exploits of Sinn Féin and the Independents are then compounded by an over-indulgent, soundbite seeking media. It’s hardly surprising therefore that the public simply fail to notice Fianna Fáil.
Despite the achievements Fianna Fáil may be securing behind the scenes from Government through the confidence and supply arrangements, those victories are concealed and hence inconsequential to potential voters. Forgotten and neglected Fianna Fáil are drifting into a slipstream of irrelevance.
This political paralysis has led observers to question if Mr Martin’s game plan will soon need to switch from revival to survival.
Opinion polls published this week drew little attention to Fine Gael’s slight fall back in the polls. Mr Varadkar’s popularity ratings drew all the headlines. Demonstrating once again that as far as the fourth estate are concerned, Varadkar is the story, his parliamentary party and his policies positions simply trail in his limelight.
Notwithstanding any encouragement Fianna Fáil might wish to elicit from this slippage in Fine Gael support, the overall picture remains the same. Fianna Fáil are lagging behind. This continued failure to make significant inroads into Fine Gael’s lead is a cause for concern.
Some solace can be gleaned from a reminder that all of the opinion polls which preceded the last general election proved entirely incorrect. Whilst the results of these polls need to be taken with some salt, they cannot be ignored. The trajectory of the opinion polls repeatedly show that Fianna Fáil’s momentum appears stalled this is because optically as a unit they appear stale. Imaginative fervour is not something you would associate with the current Fianna Fáil front bench, many of whom need now to reassess their own contribution instead of lamenting their situation.
There is further consolation for Fianna Fáil when constituencies are analysed at a micro level. And to his credit Michael Martin has proved formidable in attempting to exert a new dynamic into the Party on the testy issue of abortion. His politically brave expression of support for the repeal of the Eight Amendment to the Constitution (and for women to be allowed abortions up to 12 weeks into a pregnancy) dragged Fianna Fáil kicking and screaming into the 21st century. In a significant departure from tradition, Fianna Fáil TDs have been told they can vote with the conscience on the matter. A placation which did little to avoid internal division.
Martin received many platitudes from right winged liberal types but so far it has not translated into an increase in the opinion polls. Nor did it do anything to appeal to his base vote. Senior party members fear that there is still a long road to travel and that the Referendum ultimately will not pass. If that does happen Fianna Fáil will have ostracised many older party stalwarts needlessly.
However, Michael Martin has proved himself resilient before. In particular, in crucial Leaders debates he was vastly superior to a jaded Enda Kenny. Now though there is a new kid on the block. Mr Varadkar and his super-duper Government spin machine and €5 million war chest is a new and significant challenge.
This Government is particularly impressive when performing in the media and in public appearances. Mr Martin is probably the best man to take Leo on head to head in leaders debates when the time comes. Their contrasting fortunes were on full display this week. While Mr Varadkar got down and dirty with world leaders in Davos, and waxed lyrical about macro-economic issues and world affairs back home the Fianna Fáil party beat itself to a pulp in public one more time with feeling.
The place where the Government appears weakest is in the Dáil Éireann. The Frances Fitzgerald fiasco proved that Varadkar has an Achilles heel. He is unable to admit he doesn’t know something, and when this vanity takes control he is unable to reverse position.
Fianna Fáil might ponder this one. Oppositions do not win elections, Governments loose them.
If this next election is to be won by Fianna Fáil they must systematically define areas where the Government are weakest and exploit those deficiencies by deploying all their combined energies towards them.
Simply trotting out the same tired lines about housing and homelessness will not be enough to dent a Government who position themselves as a group of youthful administrators rather than political masters.
The crux of Fianna Fáil’s malaise lies with their lack of bigger ideas and overarching policies particularly in the area of Finance. Fianna Fáil are not stuck in the polls because of Michaél Martin. They are stuck because collectively they are still playing in the overcrowded half of the pitch with all the other left-wing proponents. Thus, allowing Leo Varadkar a straight shot at an unattended the middle class open goal.
Surely, the public deserve a better debate on how we might spend the fruits of the Irish taxpayer’s sacrifices. Instead of resting on the prospect of becoming future leader Michael Mc Grath must become part of the double act with Michael Martin and challenge the Government on their policies instead of slavishly admiring their handiwork from the side-lines.
Speculation about changing leader at this juncture is madness.
For good or ill “New Politics” has moulded Michael Martin into a side-lined ringmaster destined to stand on the margins of the show while the audience claps the main act.
Tactically at least, the ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement has worked for Fianna Fáil. It is keeping their ambition of becoming the majority party of Government alive. Strategically however it is not delivering the momentum required to fulfil that aspiration.
All that aside middle children are still an important and loved part of the family. Often, they are credited with holding the family together in times of crisis, some even say they have a superpower – invisibility.
Mandy Johnston is a columnist for the Irish Independent.
