“Politics is a blood sport, and we just love it” – Ivan Yates
As Election 2020 reaches its climax, the avalanche of manifestos culminated with the Sinn Féin proposals, which Fine Gael branded a “con job”.
The Sinn Féin publication listed a whopping €22bn bonanza over five years – sending cagey civil servants in the Department of Finance to the brink of their tolerance and sanity.
With all our political parties now pathologically committed to the “more is more” approach, the ESRI and the Economic Advisory Council offices must resemble trauma units. Places where lifeless officials lie stupefied, rendered catatonic by a mesmerising display of the public spending that lies ahead. Hand me the mop and bucket.
As spending plans expand faster than our waistlines, and coalition options concertina with every opinion poll, TV debate and radio interview, I will let you into a secret: no one has the foggiest clue what will happen on February 8.
In the world of opinion polls that utterly failed to predict Trump, Brexit or the colossal recent Tory majority in the UK election, the unprecedented is no longer the improbable. Even the most seasoned campaigners are devoid of their usual bravado and predictions.
Election 2020 has become a scrappy affair. The prospect of a meaningful discussion is now lost in the maelstrom of statistics and slurs.
Segueing into auction politics has provided a fulcrum for endless debates around the economy and coalition options. Sadly, this masks the real issues – the lack of delivery on fundamental social inclusion and a vision for Ireland’s future. We have ended up in a Jeremy Corbyn-style auction campaign. Increasingly it appears policy is made as an antidote to problems rather than a planned political objective. It’s a campaign where money is the solution to everything. The only tool voters are credited with to evaluate their political masters is a price tag.
A country should not just be defined by its economy but by its capacity to deliver social progression built on communities, consensus and the common good.
Broader pictures of general priorities are not only a safer fiscal space, they suit a political objective. In the earlier part of campaigns voters want to feel that politicians understand their problems. In the final stages, voters want someone to follow, some ideal to aspire to.
When our economy crashed Fine Gael got it back flying again. Now we are airborne, where are we going?
In campaign 2020 all our political leaders have stormed the cockpit and it’s been akin to watching a group of passengers arguing over the flightpath while hysterically pressing lots of buttons with no one quite sure where we want to land. But we have been on this journey before, we know we cannot stay economically soaring forever.
In the final days of the campaign, politicians need to refocus on a greater vision; a better way forward. Based on the current batch of polls, the permutations of our future government are not clear but there are two options which are becoming more distinct.
The first suggests a government of Fianna Fáil, Labour, Green and rural Independent TDs. A country and western rainbow, if you will. However, Election 2020 may yet prove to be utterly pointless with multiple polls suggesting a reverse forecast of the current Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil minority Government. The prospect of the perverse situation where Fine Gael would have to support Fianna Fáil conjures up images of the political equivalent of ‘Tenko’. A bleak prisoner-of-war type environment where captivity is utter torture but leaving is not an option.
When Leo Varadkar stepped out of Government Buildings to call the election, he walked into a full-force gale of his minority government’s unpopularity. He quickly learned it is relatively easy to dominate the media from the lush corridors of Government Buildings, however the white heat of an election campaign is a very different beast.
Fighting through the media ring of fire is an obstacle it must now navigate before its party message will percolate through to voters.
Fine Gael has got the economic part of the recovery equation right, it has rebuilt the economy aided by the Irish people and should be praised for its stewardship. It has not, however, fixed our societal issues. How and who will solve our problems is the question which will be decided in the next week by the Irish voter.
Election campaigns, just like government coalitions, are Darwinian – it’s survival of the fittest. For now, Fine Gael is being cannibalised because it is being dragged into the detail. In many ways debate has moved beyond it.
Attention is now focused on the dynamic between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin to decide who will be kingmakers, courtiers or journeymen.
With six days to go, it is old wars, just new soldiers.
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