Fianna Fáil now has just 10 days to win this election and Fine Gael has 10 days to lose it.
We are already in the final stretch of Election 2020. Because if life is short, election campaigns are more so.
This week, a painfully tentative debate between the two-party leaders Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin was hosted by Virgin Media, but by the time the next head-to-head takes place on RTÉ (February 4) the campaign is all but over.
All of the major issues have been highlighted, the economy, our health service, homelessness and housing, crime and punishing pensions.
An outsider might be perplexed at the vista – a kaleidoscope of social issues suffered by an economy outperforming most other European countries. It screams we have money, but where is the management?
If this election was Netflix, we may have already binge-watched most of the good stuff. Political hacks are strung out like college students with unmerciful hangovers. They’ve gorged themselves on the policies and major setpieces courtesy of all the main players.
Yesterday’s manifesto launches by both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were intended to inject new energy into the mix.
It’s a lot to cope with – the political paralysis served up by the Fine Gael minority Government of Confidence and Supply had conditioned us to anticipate at best one political episode a week, whereas now we are gorging on an entire series in a day.
For now, the main focus remains on the big two, with the surprise offer by Leo Varadkar of a grand coalition being smacked down by Micheál Martin very early on in the campaign.
Of all the developments so far, perhaps the most illuminating feature was an Ipsos/MRBI poll for the ‘Irish Times’.
It showed two-thirds of respondents opting for a change in Government. It demonstrates voters do not want Fine Gael back in government, but they have not yet decided who they do want.
Sinn Féin’s resurgence left many commentators bemused. However, if you look at how Sinn Féin has altered its position on some key issues, an explanation steadily emerges.
Firstly, it is crucial to bear in mind that Sinn Féin is a party which has perfected the craft of aggressively repurposing itself for the electorate.
Its members are disciplined, and self-possessed with an alacrity for adapting to the changing political environment around them.
The party’s dismal performance in the local and European elections last May proved an understandable catalyst for the powers that be to implement significant changes.
No one grand gesture was volunteered – instead a series of significant manoeuvres have been made incrementally in an effort to make the party more appealing to the mainstream.
That is happening particularly in the regions along the Border.
The decision to join the DUP in backing the plan from the Irish and British governments entitled ‘New Decade, New Approach’ could be having an effect on Sinn Féin’s fortunes south of the Border. The move may have helped in ameliorating some of the frustration by voters in the Border regions at Sinn Féin’s refusal to take up its seats in the NI Assembly at a time of critical importance for the region due to Brexit. It may be back in from the cold.
A TG4 poll found Sinn Féin may dislodge Fianna Fáil or an Independent to win a second seat in the five-seat Donegal constituency.
Brexit has also had an unforeseen development here; it has forced the issue of unification of Ireland on to the agenda. A referendum on unity is expressly provided for in the Good Friday Agreement.
However, most people accept and respect that triggering any such Border poll here now would be divisive and counterproductive.
Sinn Féin’s repeated insistence that we have a referendum on the issue has shifted. Leader Mary Lou McDonald has now said that her party in Government would push for a referendum on Irish unity, not immediately but by 2025.
She has also articulated the need for a significant all-island forum to debate the issues in advance. Another small but significant step.
The Sinn Féin ard fheis captured all of the main issues well, focusing on health, housing, waiting lists and homelessness. It is a populist party on the fringes, with a small team of articulate politicians who know their stuff.
Their tone of late has also changed – less aggressive, they appeal to the soft voter looking for solutions to everyday problems.
With the potential to deliver significant seat gains, the repeated and continued refusal by both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to rule out Sinn Féin as a potential partner in any future government might seem like folly. But the party is excluded as a potential coalition partner for a reason.
That reason is not really anything to do with its paramilitary past, its legacy or even its past leaders. It’s the economy, stupid.
Populism comes at a heavy price, and with both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil promising economic prudence and responsible fiscal policies, there is no way that message would maintain any credibility were they to show the ankle to Sinn Féin now.
They may yet need to revise their positions, ultimately the electorate will decide.
While it seems impossible to countenance any change of that position now, I recall what John Bruton said of Democratic Left in 1994, when he declared he would never form any coalition government.
Three weeks later, he was leading a rainbow government which included Democratic Left.
With Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil now vying for only 50pc of the popular vote, don’t rule anything out just yet – politicians are forever chasing rainbows.
Click here to read the article on the Irish Independent.
