“It’s like the feckin ‘Hotel California’, mentally we checked out of here months ago, but we can never f***ing leave.” Fianna Fáil TD Anon
THE confidence and supply arrangement that saw a Fine Gael-led minority Government buttressed by Fianna Fáil for four years morphed into a bad case of mirror-touch synaesthesia.
It is a rare syndrome where one person suffers another’s pain – every time Fine Gael made mistakes Fianna Fáil suffered for supporting it.
Although the Taoiseach was the one holding the starting gun for the election, he did not make a particularly good fist of firing it.
On Tuesday, the Kafkaesque confidence and supply deal came to an end. Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin blamed each other for its demise.
Elections are like chess. You may understand the game, but there is no formula to ensure victory.
But solid preparation, flexibility and responding instantly to moving issues is still the key to a successful campaign.
For all the imponderables, there is an idiot’s guide: three stages that we can use as a yardstick.
In phase one, parties develop their own broad narratives while simultaneously portraying their opponents as utterly useless.
Phase two sees parties and candidates outline specific policies.
Phase three spotlights national debates, the party leaders, opinion polls, and general mudslinging masquerading as what is called “rebuttal”.
If parties get things right, a back beat underscores all three phases. It is a constant pulsation of information and retort presented by party leaders aided by four or five of their best senior team players. This “dream team” is the public face of the campaign.
They articulate the vision, and become the totem for the values of the collective. It is the team who set the tone.
Some free advice here: this is not the moment to introduce new talent or attempt to convince people you have a team of 15 stars worthy of government.
You don’t need to use the entire dinner set to prove you have good china in the cupboard.
Fine Gael stepped out of Government Buildings hoping to mark its record as competent, capable guardians of the economy.
It has a bulging public purse and a responsible budget, to its great credit.
Their first message was: trust us, not them. Exceptional work by the Taoiseach, the Tánaiste and Minister Helen McEntee on Brexit was held up as an example of a stellar political team.
They’d only played half a match, but were eager to be seen bouncing around the side lines hungry for more.
Fine Gael still insists the massive dysfunctionality that continues to escalate under its stewardship on issues like health, housing and homelessness is because it had to spend so much time cleaning up Fianna Fáil’s legacy.
Their slogan ‘a future to look forward to’ asks voters to be patient with the implied promise of better days ahead.
A better way forward may be in sight, yet it still remains beyond the reach of many.
It was like watching a child take off on a bike without the stabilisers: shaky but it could get better, or crash cataclysmically.
Fianna Fáil immediately fixed health and housing as the issues it would zone in on.
A horrific accident on the banks of the canal followed by the Taoiseach’s tone-deaf and opportunistic response catapulted homelessness into mainstream electioneering.
Fianna Fáil merely needed to look on in horror.
Is this what we have all become?
But Fianna Fáil’s plans to date have been branded wafer-thin. It is something it needs to address.
It too will be evaluated on the solutions it presents on the economy, health and housing.
But unlike Fine Gael, its problem is not the future but the past.
The late Noel Whelan articulated its electoral progress best when he likened its 2011 position to a patient “flatlining on life support”.
In 2016 having doubled their seats, Mr Whelan said the “patient was now sitting up in the bed”.
In 2020 the patient is up and prowling the corridors waiting for discharge.
Redemption lies in its ability to convince the public it can fix fundamental societal problems.
It must also prove it can be trusted with the economy, and have the humility to do so with good grace.
This is the first election under Micheál Martin’s leadership where the party is now considered a credible alternative for government.
Right now, the momentum is with Fianna Fáil. Transforming it into a swing will be key.
But one should not underestimate the party’s ability to spontaneously combust.
Next week we will see more policy papers on health and housing and their manifestos.
Historically, such tomes were scrutinised by media, and scoured over by opponents.
Live-feed media means creating huge papers no longer makes good political sense.
In a world of soundbites and simplistic messages, it would prove counterproductive.
The inevitability of coalition governments also means every pledge is a hostage to fortune.
We might think the days of auction politics are over. Fianna Fáil is eager to project competence and fiscal prudence.
Fine Gael, however, has shown a predilection for sticking its hands in the cookie jar, offering more tax cuts and wage increases.
As things heat up, the consciences of the big players will be tested when it comes to give-aways and votes.
But for all of the strategising, planning and plotting it is the vagaries of life on the doorsteps – or tents that don’t have doorsteps – which have the capacity to change things.
Born is Storm Brendan, steady as he goes could be the mantra for surviving election 2020.
Mandy Johnston is a former government press secretary
Click here to view the article on the Irish Independent
